The climate change challenge and transitions for radical changes in the European steel industry

Cet article vise à identifier les transitions technologiques en cours dans la sidérurgie européenne. Les limites actuelles du système socio-technique centré autour du haut-fourneau, impliquent en effet des changements dans les modes production, de distribution et de consommation d'acier. L'agenda évolue de la recherche de process plus propre (« cleaner production ») vers des innovations de système. Les technologies radicales ULCOS (Ultra Low CO2 Steelmaking) doivent répondre à la modification de l'environnement de sélection mais leur adoption et diffusion dépendra fortement du niveau de la contrainte « carbone » et des fondamentaux identifiés par l'économie industrielle et l'approche évolutionniste.Les experts du secteur ont aussi identifié le besoin d'un agenda de recherche dédié aux modes de consommation de matériaux à long terme. L'évolution du contenu en matériaux et énergie des infrastructures, produits et services (mobilité, logement, chauffage, éclairage...) est fortement susceptible d'évoluer, en particulier dans le cadre de contraintes « carbone » fortes. L'approche « PSS » ou « product-service-system » dans le transport et la construction peut devenir une opportunité pour la sidérurgie du 21eme siècle.changement climatique;eco-efficacité;industrie sidérurgique;innovation

Investigating the peculiarities of sustainable energy policies in islands communities for smart grid development: insights from complexity science and agent based models

Initiatives and projects ranging from European islands to the Falklands and the Pacific Fiji islands are implementing renewable energy sources. They not only address the unique features of islands but also to reduce the economic vulnerability of small island states and in some cases, regenerate depopulated island communities and enhance socio-economic and ecological sustainability. Islands are often regarded as laboratories for, or precursors of, wider energy transitions and the “smart grid” innovation makes no exception. The “smart grid” is an umbrella term that covers modernization of both the transmission and active distribution grids and the different competing smart grid architectures could transform the electricity industry and the relations with consumers and prosumers. This paper asks two – relatively simple – questions: are there any socio-technical energy systems and dominant designs more prone to emerge depending on the topologies and scale of islands? How far can we learn and scale up lessons from the studies of island energy communities that are useful in other Complex Adaptive Systems (CAS) with greater scale and interconnectivity? This exploratory paper is part of on-going research project (CASCADE) to model smart grids as Agent Based Systems embracing concepts and techniques from Complexity Science. There are three key objectives. The paper initially summarizes the key particuliarities of island energy systems, including the scale and boundaries to the socio-technical system that combine to determine the appropriateness of different energy responses, balancing and optimizing the various combinations of distributed renewable generation, energy storage (including plug-in cars), and loads. From this, a provisional conceptual model will be presented which identifies the range of factors that (re)configure to influence the potential dissemination of new energy technologies within island communities and the range of agents that influence that process. The paper will build on an expanding literature on modelling societal transitions with cognitive agents and agent transformation to justify our modelling choices. Central to the question is how to represent the cognitive agents and their adoption of new technologies and adaptation patterns.Validation may benefit from data from the Bornholm smartgrid case and other case studies

Understanding energy behaviours and transitions through the lens of a smart grid Agent Based Model

Available from: .Investigating the dynamics of consumption is crucial for understanding the wider socio-technical transitions needed to achieve carbon reduction goals in the energy sector. Such insight is particularly necessary when considering Smart Grids and current debates about potential transition pathways (and contingent benefits) for the electricity system and coupled gas and transport systems. The electricity grid is a complex adaptive system comprising physical networks, economic markets and multiple, heterogeneous, interacting agents. Fundamental to innovation studies is that social practices and technological artefacts shape and are shaped by one another. Different trajectories of socio-technical systems’ transition are intrinsically linked to the behavioural and cognitive norms of individuals, businesses, communities, sectors, and governance institutions. Therefore the transition to smart(er) grids inevitably requires a knowledge transition and behaviour change among such actor groups. To date, these effects have not been modelled. We present a prototype Agent Based Model (ABM) as a means to examine the effect of individual behaviour and social learning on energy use patterns, from the perspectives of adoption of energy saving behaviours, energy saving technologies and individual or community based energy use practices. We draw on the Energy Cultures framework to understand real-world observations and incorporate representative energy use behaviours into the model and discuss the model’s relation to case studies, e.g. energy use in island communities. Such models enable examination of how far we can learn and scale up lessons from case studies to similar Socio-Technical Systems with bigger scale and greater interconnectivity such as the UK national grid.EPSRC - grant EP/G059969/

Exploring smart grid possibilities: a complex systems modelling approach

Smart grid research has tended to be compartmentalised, with notable contributions from economics, electrical engineering and science and technology studies. However, there is an acknowledged and growing need for an integrated systems approach to the evaluation of smart grid initiatives. The capacity to simulate and explore smart grid possibilities on various scales is key to such an integrated approach but existing models – even if multidisciplinary – tend to have a limited focus. This paper describes an innovative and flexible framework that has been developed to facilitate the simulation of various smart grid scenarios and the interconnected social, technical and economic networks from a complex systems perspective. The architecture is described and related to realised examples of its use, both to model the electricity system as it is today and to model futures that have been envisioned in the literature. Potential future applications of the framework are explored, along with its utility as an analytic and decision support tool for smart grid stakeholders

Urban energy initiatives: the implications of new urban energy pathways for the UK

The existing lock-in to centralisation of the UK energy system is being challenged. The CLUES project explores the role of urban energy initiatives and the implications for carbon reductions

Application of Scenario Analysis to the selection and diffusion of ULCOS technologies in the Steel Industry

séminaire, Aveiro, Ulcos, 21-22 septembre 200

Contrainte d'environnement global et changement technique induit : vers des trajectoires d'innovations radicales dans la sidérurgie

Thèse de doctorat ès Sciences économiques, Université Pierre-Mendès-France, Grenoble, soutenue le 2 octobre 2007This thesis aims to investigate the responses of the steel industry sector to the global carbon constraint (permits, taxes) and specifically the ULCOS (Ultra Low CO2 Steelmaking) technologies.The analysis relates more precisely to the conditions of the greening of innovations, the selection of new incremental and radical innovation and the inter-technology competition. It takes into account the uncertainty of the selection environment (evolution of the prices of energy, carbon, raw materials, steel demand, conditions of competition).The influence of the modification of the induced relative prices under different simulations is dealt with a partial equilibrium model.Complementary concepts of industrial economics and investment under uncertainty related to the decision, adoption and diffusion of technologies have been explored. I highlight the promising complementary work of integrating anticipation of actors and imperfect competition.The methodology developed is potentially useful for other sectors (industries of cement, paper, aluminium...). This case study on steelmaking illustrates the theoretical framework of the pluridisciplinary scientific agenda IHDP-Industrial Transformation that combines evolutionary and neoclassical economics of technical change.Cette thèse a pour champ d'investigation le secteur de la sidérurgie et les réponses technologiques ULCOS (Ultra Low CO2 Steelmaking) développées face à la contrainte « carbone » (taxes, permis négociables) qui s'ajoute aux défis industriels et modifie la direction du changement technique. Notre analyse porte plus précisément sur les conditions du « verdissement » (ou greening) des innovations, la sélection d'une nouvelle filière technologique et la compétition inter-technologique dans une industrie particulièrement sujette au lock-in, en tenant compte des incertitudes sur l'environnement de sélection spécifique (évolution des prix de l'énergie, du carbone et matières premières sur les coûts de production, demande d'acier, conditions de concurrence...).L'influence de la modification des prix relatifs induits compte tenu des simulations des contraintes sur les marchés du carbone et de l'énergie est étudié d'un modèle d'équilibre partiel appliqué.Sollicitant plusieurs concepts d'économie industrielle et de l'investissement sous incertitude pour modéliser les questions a décision, de sélection, d'adoption et de diffusion de technologies, notre thèse ouvre des pistes de travail à partir de la prise en compte des anticipations des acteurs et de la concurrence imparfaite.La méthodologie développée dans ce travail empirique est potentiellement applicable à d'autres secteurs (industries du papier, ciment, aluminium... ) et fournit des réponses aux questions théoriques identifiées par l'agenda scientifique pluridisciplinaire IHDP-Industrial transformation qui sollicite les apports complémentaires des théories évolutionnistes et néoclassiques du changement technique

Contrainte d'environnement global et changement technique induit : vers des trajectoires d'innovations radicales dans la sidérurgie

Thèse de doctorat ès Sciences économiques, Université Pierre-Mendès-France, Grenoble, soutenue le 2 octobre 2007This thesis aims to investigate the responses of the steel industry sector to the global carbon constraint (permits, taxes) and specifically the ULCOS (Ultra Low CO2 Steelmaking) technologies.The analysis relates more precisely to the conditions of the greening of innovations, the selection of new incremental and radical innovation and the inter-technology competition. It takes into account the uncertainty of the selection environment (evolution of the prices of energy, carbon, raw materials, steel demand, conditions of competition).The influence of the modification of the induced relative prices under different simulations is dealt with a partial equilibrium model.Complementary concepts of industrial economics and investment under uncertainty related to the decision, adoption and diffusion of technologies have been explored. I highlight the promising complementary work of integrating anticipation of actors and imperfect competition.The methodology developed is potentially useful for other sectors (industries of cement, paper, aluminium...). This case study on steelmaking illustrates the theoretical framework of the pluridisciplinary scientific agenda IHDP-Industrial Transformation that combines evolutionary and neoclassical economics of technical change.Cette thèse a pour champ d'investigation le secteur de la sidérurgie et les réponses technologiques ULCOS (Ultra Low CO2 Steelmaking) développées face à la contrainte « carbone » (taxes, permis négociables) qui s'ajoute aux défis industriels et modifie la direction du changement technique. Notre analyse porte plus précisément sur les conditions du « verdissement » (ou greening) des innovations, la sélection d'une nouvelle filière technologique et la compétition inter-technologique dans une industrie particulièrement sujette au lock-in, en tenant compte des incertitudes sur l'environnement de sélection spécifique (évolution des prix de l'énergie, du carbone et matières premières sur les coûts de production, demande d'acier, conditions de concurrence...).L'influence de la modification des prix relatifs induits compte tenu des simulations des contraintes sur les marchés du carbone et de l'énergie est étudié d'un modèle d'équilibre partiel appliqué.Sollicitant plusieurs concepts d'économie industrielle et de l'investissement sous incertitude pour modéliser les questions a décision, de sélection, d'adoption et de diffusion de technologies, notre thèse ouvre des pistes de travail à partir de la prise en compte des anticipations des acteurs et de la concurrence imparfaite.La méthodologie développée dans ce travail empirique est potentiellement applicable à d'autres secteurs (industries du papier, ciment, aluminium... ) et fournit des réponses aux questions théoriques identifiées par l'agenda scientifique pluridisciplinaire IHDP-Industrial transformation qui sollicite les apports complémentaires des théories évolutionnistes et néoclassiques du changement technique

Meeting the Climate Change challenge : towards social and technical innovations for a functional society

Innovation in Life Cycle Engineering and Sustainable Development : 12th CIRP Life Cycle Engineering Seminar, CIRP, Grenoble, 3-5 avril 2005

Technology policies in a new setting : social and technological transitions and the climate change challenge - Insights from the material/steel industry

2nd PRIME Doctoral Conference, SPRU, Brighton, 20-21 juin 200